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  • Tempting Fate With Futures

    Posted by Nelson Pellew on March 7th, 2010 and filed under Uncategorized | No Comments »

    One mismanaged trade can be the ruin of any fortune — and often is. Investments can be a problematic prospect, especially for the average investor whose only aim in to grow his or her nest egg. Indeed, in some regards these investors are the backbone of the industry. That being said, they can also be some of its most dramatic victims.

    For this reason alone, many go-it-alone investors prefer to add a new dimension to their investment strategy: time. To the uninitiated, this means they prefer to trade in futures. This means investors can utilize traditional commodities or E-mini index funds to leverage the projected value of commodities at some point in the future — hence the name.

    Futures are not shackled to the whims and wishes of Wall Street — not directly, in any case. To that end, an investor can enjoy the privilege of round-the-clock trading via any global exchange. To be sure, the futures trader does not look to New York as much as he or she looks to the Second City, Chicago. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange is the mecca future traders turn to seek their fortunes.

    It should be noted that although futures allow for greater investment flexibility, they require ready access to significant amounts of liquid capital. That is, they require access to cash — and lots of it. This is so because should your E-minis drop below the CME margin call, you will be required to ante-up, as it were. You can’t take your place at the roulette wheel unless you can afford to buy the placards, you see.

    With a handful of E-minis, some commodities traders can reap a veritable financial whirlwind. What futures promise — and often deliver to the savvy strategist — is the potential for dramatic gains. Of course, this is subject to training and it would be in the best interests of the would-be futures traders to enroll in a futures trading course before embarking on too rigorous a trading regiment.

    Heed the better part of your good sense and enroll in a reputable futures trading course prior to frittering away your hard-earned nest egg.

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    Finding Out About System Trading

    Posted by admin on March 4th, 2010 and filed under commodity online trading | No Comments »

    Jumping into the art of trading can be a long and arduous task. Learning about it and mastering it can take months, even years. And even with all that training, you will still find yourself lost in the shuffle.

    So what can one aspiring trader do? The most important thing to consider, after learning all you can about trading is continuing education. What does this mean? It means keeping yourself up to date with all the changes in the world of system trading.

    The world of trading shifts constantly, and one must be kept on his or her toes on all events that may change. If not, you may find yourself stuck between a rock and a hard place if you don’t know what to do. To have a sort of continuing education is important also so that you won’t forget the aspects of trading you may use sparingly. but the main objective is to be kept up to date.

    An example is, if you wish to be kept up to speed with the crude oil market, and the forex market, you’d have to visit multiple blogs just to be abreast of the changing trends. One answer to that is to follow a system trading blog that caters to all aspects of trading that you are interested in. Though some topics may not be applicable to you, it is good practice to learn them still so that you would be prepared for whatever eventuality you may encounter.

    Going back to the crude oil market, if you are anything like me, I know nothing about it when I started, but while I was doing my continuing education, I learned all about easy. This gives me an edge on my peers as well giving me an option to look into trading into the crude oil market. So whether you are into oil, forex or what have you, be sure to continue learning not just on your chosen field, but also with the other branches of trading. This will ensure you not getting caught with your pants down if ever something undesirable happens.



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    Why ETF Options Are Better Than Index Options?

    Posted by Ahmad Hassam on March 1st, 2010 and filed under options on futures | No Comments »

    Index Options and ETF Options both provide you with an opportunity to use options strategies on a group of underlying stocks. However, there are some major difference between the Index Options and the ETF Options.

    The most important difference is that Index Options are cash settled on expiry while the ETF Options are settled with the underlying instruments that is shares of that ETF. Since with an ETF Options, you can also own the underlying security, you can use various combination strategies.

    Stocks have dividends that are paid out periodically to the stock holders. Dividends are an important part of the return that a stock gives over a certain period of time. Now when you are trading index options or ETF options both of them get affected by the dividend payments on the underlying stocks. You need to take this fact into account when calculating the values of puts and calls with an Options Calculator otherwise your investment returns may not be what you have been anticipating.

    If you have traded stock options before, trading ETF Options should not be difficult for you. As said before, since ETF Options get settled with ETF shares, you can use the different options trading strategies on them unlike the Index Options that get settled in cash. This makes ETF Options a much superior instrument as compared to Index Options.

    Now when trading ETF Options, you can use the famous Protective Put Strategy by combining long ETF with a long put. This way you can hedge against the downside risk with a small increased cost to the ETF. A Protective Put will limit the downside risk to the put strike price.

    Similarly, you can use a Covered Call on ETF. A Covered Call is formed by taking combining long ETF with a short call on that ETF. The short call will give you some income in the shape of a premium and reduce the cost of the position. This will also slightly reduce the risk of the position. But on the other hand, a covered call will limit the upside profit potential. Your max profit now will only be limited to the call strike price.

    Now, you can also use a Collared Position as well by combining a long ETF with a long put and a short call. This combination limits the downside risk to the put strike price with a slight increase in the cost of the ETF. This net increase in cost by taking a long put is offset with the premium brought in by the short call. On the other hand, the limited but high risk is turned into limited risk only.

    What you need to do is first paper trade these strategies and master them. This way you will learn how to deal with unexpected risk. Options trading is risky in the sense that it has both time volatility as well as price volatility. Now, many traders trade options without getting good options trading education.

    ETF options are always American Style meaning you can exercise them any time before the expiry. You can even use LEAP Options on ETFs. LEAP Options are long term options having expiry ranging from nine months to 21/2 years. Now just like stocks, not all ETF have options available for trading.

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    Futures Trading Like The Turtles Can Make You Rich!

    Posted by Ahmad Hassam on February 28th, 2010 and filed under commodity trading | No Comments »

    There are many types of financial instruments that traders and investors trade. Futures is one of them just like stocks and bonds. A stock gives you ownership of one part of a company. If you own 10,000 stocks of a company, you own 10,000 parts of that company. On the other hand a bond is an IOU that governments and companies issue to finance their operations.

    Futures market is a highly regulated market with the CFTC responsible for its regulation. Buyers and sellers don’t come in direct contact with each other. In between is the Central Clearing House that enforces the contract reducing the risk of party default! Futures contract as the name implies is a binding contract between two parties for the delivery of a commodity or an asset or even a financial instrument at some future date between the buyer and seller of that contract.

    Futures market is the backbone of the whole sale and retail commodity market ranging from oil, wheat, corn, heating oil, meat, cattle, soybeans and other foodstuff. So you can well imagine the importance of the futures market. Futures market serves the purpose of hedging and speculation.

    These contracts get regulated through a central clearing hours so the risk of one party backing out of the contract is minimal. This limits the time and risk exposure experienced by hedgers and speculators. Now, futures contracts are by design time bound and expire at a fixed date.

    In the last decades, electronic trading has become highly popular among the traders. This includes futures as well. So, now you can easily trade these contracts by opening an account with a FCM brokerage and deposit an amount to start trading these contracts on margin. The minimum amount with most of the brokers is something like $5,000 but it can less too! Brokers allow leverage upto 10:1 when you trade on margin. Compare this to the leverage of 2:1 allowed by stock brokers.

    In US, open outcry trading still takes place during the official hours at the different futures exchanges. However, most of these futures contracts also get traded electronically. GLOBEX allows electronic trading of most of these futures contracts 23 hours each day. Electronic trading provides a more level playing field, more price transparency and lower transaction costs.

    The popular contracts that get traded on GLOBEX are the E-minis like the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100 and Dow. You can also trade E-mini gold futures as well as crude oil futures on GLOBEX. CME, NYMEX and CBOT are the three most important Futures Exchanges. GLOBEX allows you to trade most of the contracts that get traded on these exchanges.

    Now, GLOBEX trading continues during the night after the official close of CME, CBOT and NYMEX at 4:15 PM EST. However, overnight trading can be thin and highly volatile as compared to the official hours. You can find GLOBEX quotes on CNBC and Bloomberg!

    These quotes are real time. Futures trading can be highly profitable but risky as well. Before you dabble in them, you should paper trade these contracts for at least a month just to get a feel of how to do it. There are many contracts that you can trade and the possibilities of making money in futures trading are immense. Imagine the prices of crude oil going up again just like what happened in the summer of 2008!

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    Back Testing Your Trading System-Know These Shocking Limitations

    Posted by Ahmad Hassam on February 27th, 2010 and filed under options on futures | No Comments »

    A trading system might consist of a few indicators and a number of rules that tell when to enter the trade and when to exit the trade. Trading system is considered to be proven and tested if there is some date that supports its performance under live market trading conditions. However, it might not be possible to test a trading system quickly under live trading conditions. To overcome such problems, backtesting has been developed. Backtesting is done with the use of a software.

    For this you can do back testing. Back testing is a method that uses historical data to test how well your indicators work in a particular market. You can use back testing software that enables you to look at the past market data and test how well the indicators and your trading system have worked in the past market.

    Backtesting results are no guarantee that the trading system will perform well under live market conditions. Things that worked in the past might not work now. Similarly something that didn’t work in the past, may work now! You never know!There are many problems with historical data. There is no slippage in backtesting. Slippage is one of the most important problem that a trader faces while trading live. The other problem that the backtest ignores is the widening of spreads under volatile market conditions.

    In other words, no two trades work out in exact the same way twice. SO you have to be careful when looking at the back testing results and take it with a pinch of salt. However, there are still some advantages of back testing a trading system.

    Some markets are highly seasonal. For example, if you are a commodity trader and tend to trade agricultural commodities like the grain, seed or the livestock, these have a fixed planting and harvesting cycles.

    For example, some markets especially the commodities market is highly seasonal and cyclical in nature. We can take the example of agricultural commodities like wheat, grains,corn, cotton, coffee and stuff like that. In case of the stock market, there is much talk of the January Effect. Well, it is there no doubt about it. Some years, it is highly pronounced and others it is not that pronounced. Similarly stock prices tend to rise at the end of each month and the first few days of the new months. The reason for this is that many institutional investors tend to put the new funds to work at the end of the month and the beginning of the new month! Now in other markets, you might not find any seasonal trends. For example, there is very little seasonality in curreny market or the bond market.

    US Dollar Index trendlines might last for months to years. In other markets too backtesting can help you figure out important trends that lasts for last times. Backtesting can help you figure out how long a trend might last in a particular market.

    There is no substitute for live trading results! To tell you the truth, backtesting can only give you a rough guess about the performance of the trading system under live trading conditions.

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    How Momentum Investing Can Make You Rich?

    Posted by Ahmad Hassam on February 27th, 2010 and filed under options on futures | No Comments »

    As a trader, you are always looking for short term profit. While as an investor, you are willing to invest long term in a company or a security to make capital gain. In trading, you are always looking for making profit from the volatility in the market. Day trading has a short term time horizon of only one day. A day trader opens a trade and closes that trade in the same day to make a quick profit. Day traders need quick reflexes as well as a keen observation of the market volatility. Many people day trade successfully. However, on the other hand hand, many people have a long term time horizon of many months to years. They have a long term financial goal and this matches with their investment style.

    An investor might have to wait for a long time before realizing a return on his or her investment. Many investors can learn a few tricks from day traders that can help them make a quick profit in a matter of days orn weeks instead of months or years. Now a company’s stock may have a good long term prospects supported by strong fundamentals. But the stock may stay still for a long time before it catches the attention of the media and the investing public before it’s price get’s bid up.

    Many investors when they fall in love with their investments on the long run forget this cardinal rule of trading that you have to cut your losses. Market least care who you are and how long you have been in it.There is a general problem with so many investors. They fall in love with their investment after doing so much research and committing so much time for the position to work. Now, day traders are always hit and run types. They have developed an innate sense of discipline among themselves that teaches them when to commit money to a trade and when to cut and run.

    When, there is momentum behind a security, it means that it’s price will continue to icnrease as long as it has got momentum. This way by investing in stocks having momentum behind them, you avoid the risk of getting stuck in stocks that might not move for months and months.

    When investing, you try to buy low and sell high. In momentum investing, you buy high and sell even higher! One of the tricks that you can learn from day traders is momentum investing. In momentum investing, you look for securities that are expected to go up in prices accompanied by the underlying momentum. Now, when the price of a stock or security increases because of strong demand, it is said to have momentum behind it.

    How to you find that a security has got momentum behind it? You can use these technical indicators like the MACD ( Moving Average Convergence and Divergence), RSI (Relative Strength Index) or the Stochastic. A swing trader is also looking to ride a trend as long as it lasts. A trend lasts as long as it has got momentum behind it. Momentum investing is similar to swing trading.

    Momentum investing can also lead to bubbles like that happened in the dot com bubble in the last few years of 1990s. It is always a good idea to do some fundamental research on the companies before doing momentum investing.

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