Knowing the major market cycles is important for you and your trading system. Each market cycle requires a different approach from your trading system. There are four major market cycles. Adapting to market cycles can improve your profitability.

So you need to understand how to determine market cycles if you want to become a successful trader. Lets discuss these market cycles now. The four major market cycles are: 1) Trending, 2) Consolidating, 3) Breaking out of a consolidation and 4) Corrective.

Remember the saying, Trend is your friend. Trending is when the market starts to move consistently in one direction either up or down. An uptrend means each higher high is higher than the previous high and each lower low is also higher from the previous low. Similarly for the down trend!

Consolidating is when the market is struck between two horizontal support and resistance levels. On a chart, it will look like a sideways horizontal line.

Now what is breaking out of a Consolidation? After the market has been consolidation for at least 20 bars Breaking out of a Consolidation is when there is a sharp increase or decrease in the price.

Corrective is a short sharp reverse in prices during a longer market trend. In addition to these four market cycles, many traders also use Elliott Wave Theory to determine waves which are also an indication of market cycles.

There are five Elliott waves and each one has its own relevance in determining the trading strategy. However, using Elliott Waves is somewhat advanced for most traders. You need to have a thorough understanding and ability to correctly determine which wave the market is in at that point.

Incorrectly identifying the market with either the four market cycles or by using the Elliot Waves can be a costly mistake. For example suppose the market is only in consolidation and you incorrectly determine that the market has entered a trend.

You might enter a trend trade and get immediately stopped out. Your best plan of action should be constant observation. Market experience is the best teacher and only overtime you will be able to correctly figure out the market cycle.

Right side of the chart is always an unknown quantity for the trader until it reveals itself. Hindsight is always perfect but trying to predict the markets can be an elusive and impossible endeavor.

The markets have four cycles just as there are four seasons in a year. You need to learn what the different market cycles are in addition to having a trading system. That means you should develop the skill of correctly identifying the different market cycles at the right time.

If you want to become a successful trader than you should be adapt at identifying the market cycle. Effectively identifying the market cycles is a skill that all successful traders have mastered. You need to learn how to adopt your approach to those cycles to remain profitable. For example in a choppy, sideways bracketed market, you need to adopt your system and rules so that you do not get whip sawed and stopped out a lot.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. Learn These Candlestick Patterns. Try These 1500 Pips A Day Forex Signals from heaven! Get a totally unique version of this article from our article submission service

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The European Union consists of 15 member countries that include Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom.

Only 12 common currency countries out of these above 15 countries constitute the European Monetary Union (EMU). These 12 countries share a single monetary policy dictated by the European Central Bank (ECB). All these above countries share the common currency Euro except Denmark, Sweden and United Kingdom.

EMU has a highly developed and efficient fixed income, equity and the futures market. The EMU is the worlds second largest economic powerhouse after the United States. This makes EMU the second most attractive investment market for domestic and international investors.

US assets have had solid returns historically. United States absorbs something like 70% of the total foreign savings as a result. In the past, the EMU had difficulty in attracting foreign direct investment or large capital inflows. The primary reason was the United States. The present global financial crisis has hurt the US and EU economies deeply. It is expected that a major restructuring of the global financial system will take place eventually that makes EMU far more attractive.

However, with the EMU beginning to incorporate even more members in Eastern Europe, Euros importance is expected to increase. Induction of new members will further increase the size of EMU. The capital flows to Europe is expected to increase as well.

With foreign central banks expected to diversify their Euro reserve holdings even further, demand for Euro is expected to continue rising. EMU is in fact a trade driven and a capital flow driven economy. Trade is very important to the national economies within EMU.

EU exports comprise almost 20% of the world trade. While EU accounts for only 17% of the world imports! Because of the size of the EMUs trade with the rest of the world, it has significant power in the international trade arena. Unlike United States, EMU does not have large trade deficit or surplus.

Both EU and the United States are two very important members of the World Trade organization (WTO). United States is the largest trading partner of EU. The formation of EU allows individual member countries to group as one entity and negotiates on an equal playing field with the United States. International clout is one of the primary reasons in the formation of EU.

Leading export markets for EU are the United States, Switzerland, Japan, Poland and China. Leading import sources for EU are United States, Japan, China, Switzerland and Russia.

Large numbers of EU based companies concentrate their research, design, innovation and marketing part of the activity in EU while outsourcing most of their manufacturing to Asia. EU is primarily a service oriented economy. Services account for more than 70% of the EU economy while manufacturing, mining and utilities account for around 20% of the EU economy.

It is important for most of the countries to hold large amounts of reserve currencies to reduce exchange rate risk and transaction costs. Most international trade transactions involve the British Pound, the Japanese Yen and the US Dollar.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. He is interested in day trading stocks and currencies. Try Strignano’s Forex Signals free. Discover a revolutionary Forex Robot Trading System!

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As a forex trader you should always watch the news especially if you are trading Euro cross then any news or announcement relating to ECB. ECB publishes monthly bulletin detailing analysis of economic conditions. This bulletin can give important signals to changes in the monetary policy. Forex market participants widely watch the comments by the members of the Governing Council of ECB. These comments frequently tend to move the Euro.

All major euro crosses are highly liquid. Now EUR/USD cross is the most liquid currency. The movements of EUR/USD currency pair are used as the primary gauge to judge the health of both European and the United States health. Euro is also known as the anti-dollar since it is the dollar fundamentals that have dictated the movements in the EUR/USD pair from 2003-2008.

EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF are very liquid pairs too and are used to judge the health of the Japanese and Swiss economies. EUR/USD and EUR/GBP are great trading currencies as they have tight spreads, make orderly moves and rarely gap.

Euro is still a new currency. It was launched in 1999. Euro has unique risks. There are number of risks unique to the Euro. The most important is the exposure to the economic, political and social development of 15 member countries in the EU.

Although more countries are expected to join EMU, however, if a member country drops Euro and reverts back to its original national currency because it believes that ECB actions are not in its best interests, it could affect the stability of the entire region.

ECB has the power to determine monetary policy for its 15 member countries. However, we can say Euro is a currency without a country. With that comes the political pressure of 15 governments. This political pressure frequently tests the actions of ECB.

The present global financial crisis is unlike any in the past. However, the rapid response of ECB to the present global financial crisis in the shape of deep liquidity injections has transformed its reputation. The spread between 10 year US Treasuries and 10 year bunds can indicate Euro sentiment.

Another important interest rate that you must know as a forex trader is the Euro Interbank Offer Rate (Euribor). This is the rate offered from one large bank to another on interbank term deposits. Traders and investors tend to compare the Euribor futures rate with the Eurodollars futures rate.

Lower spreads make the European assets less attractive. Higher spreads between the two rates makes the European fixed income assets more attractive. Merger and Acquisition activities between US and European multinationals have important implications for EUR/USD pair. Large deals if in cash have often significant short term impact on EUR/USD.

Important indicators for Euro are Harmonized Index of Consumer prices (HICP), M3, German Unemployment, Preliminary GDP that includes France, Germany and Netherlands, German Industrial Production, Individual country budget deficit. The largest countries in EMU are Germany, France and Italy. Study of the economic data of these three large countries is also important.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. He is interested in day trading stocks and currencies. Try Strignano’s Forex Signals free. Discover a revolutionary Forex Robot Trading System!

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The New York time between 3:00 PM EST to 7:00 PM EST is best suited for scalping with the counter trend strategy. Off hours between 3:00 PM and 7:00 PM EST is when all the world banks are closed. The U.S. banks are closing their doors and the Asian banks have not yet opened. This is a great time to scalp the market using a counter-trend strategy, because no larger banks are moving money (i.e. the markets) at that time. Just as with the London close, there is no set way in which the New York afternoon market plays out. On more active days where prices have moved significantly, the lower liquidity can cause additional outsized price movements. So traders just need to be aware that lower liquidity conditions tend to prevail and adapt accordingly.

Why do investors need to exchange their domestic currencies for foreign currencies? Many want to invest in foreign assets. For that they need to convert their domestic currency into foreign currency. Companies involved in import and export business need foreign exchange to order new consignments or make payments. Multinationals need foreign exchange to repatriate profits. Big banks need foreign exchange and the list goes on. The forex market does no exist in a vacuum. You may have heard of other markets that exist like the gold, stocks, bonds, oil, futures and commodities.

There is a fair amount of noise and misinformation about the supposed relationship among these markets and the individual currency pairs. You can always find some correlation between two markets over time.

All these individual financial markets function according to their own internal dynamics based on data, news, positioning and sentiment. However, always keep this in kind that all the various financial markets are markets in their own right.

These markets will occasionally overlap and display varying degrees of correlation due to various underlying economic factors. So you should view each market in its own right perspective and trade accordingly.

However, its always important to be aware of whats going on in the other financial markets. Lets discuss some major financial markets and see what conclusions we can draw for currency trading.

Gold: Gold is commonly viewed as a store of value in times of economic and political instability and uncertainty. Gold is also considered to be an alternative to the US Dollar and a hedge against inflation.

Gold prices have been rising for the last two years. There is an uptrend in the gold prices. Many investors are flying towards safety and investing into gold as a hedge against deflation and the present financial crisis. A weaker US Dollar is generally accompanied by higher gold prices and a stronger US Dollar is accompanied by lower gold prices. Over the long term, the relationship between Gold and US Dollar is mostly inverse or negative.

This makes short term relationship between the gold prices and US Dollar generally tenuous. However, in the short term, each market has its own dynamics and liquidity. Overall, the gold market is much smaller than the forex market.

Extreme movements in the gold prices tend to attract currency traders attention and usually influence the US Dollar in a mostly inverse fashion. At the same time, gold traders tend to keep an eye on whats happening to the US Dollar.

Oil: The global economy runs on oil. In 2008, crude oil prices skyrocketed from $60-70 to almost $150. It was being predicted at that time that oil prices will reach $200. It made the whole world jittery. Oil prices rise is a cause of inflation in almost every economy in the world. Then all of the sudden the bubble burst in a few months. Were the hedge funds involved in the sudden increase in the oil prices and than their collapse? A lot of confusion is usually spread on the relationship between oil and US Dollar and other currencies like CAD and JPY. Correlation studies show no appreciable relationship to that effect in the short run which is where most of the currency trading is focused. The idea behind these theories is that if the country is an importer of oil, its currency will be hurt by the higher oil prices and helped by lower oil prices.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. He is interested in day trading stocks and currencies. Try These 1500 Pips A Day Forex Signals From Heaven. Develop Your Own Forex Trading System!

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Of all the financial markets, spot forex market maybe considered as the most pure in the sense that supply and demand is strictly what determines the prices. Spot means that both the buyer and the sellers agree on a certain price and make the transaction on the spot without any delay. The spot forex market is an over the counter market. The spot forex market is a decentralized network of buyers and sellers. There is no physical central exchange that acts as a central clearing house.

Over the counter means that the buyers and sellers make a binding contract with each other after agreeing on the price and this is not carried through an exchange unlike the forex futures trading that is carried out through the exchange like CBOT, CME etc.

What are the advantages of a centralized market over OTC market? There is a better price discovery in a centralized market and there is trading anonymity something that big players want to hide their trails. There are several other advantages of a central exchange too like the counterparty risk for the trade is reduced. Forex traders in the spot forex market carry out their activities by dialing directly with one another or through brokers on telephone or internet.

In 2007, Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) along with Reuters launched FXMarketSpace; the worlds first centrally cleared global forex market place. In this centrally cleared system, CME will act as the clearing house and guarantee the performance of all the contracts for both buyers and sellers.

Unfortunately FXMarketSpace is an institutional trading platform and is not open to retail forex traders. Only sophisticated investors with net worth of more than $20 Million can trade on the FXMarketSpace.

There are many players involved in the spot forex market. Recently NFA (National Futures Association) had also passed certain new rules that make it more skewed against the small investor like you and me. The spot forex market is still skewed against the retail forex trader. Why is it so?

The spot forex market has always been an unfair playing field for the big boys. It became possible to introduce trading platforms for the retail investors with the advent of the internet. Previously spot forex trading was the playfield of the big banks, multinationals and the hedge funds.

The forex market differs from other traditional financial markets. Things deemed illegal in most of the other financial markets are simply considered part of the game in the forex market. Insider trading, front running, price shading etc are all regularly seen in forex trading and have no legal repercussions whatsoever. Retail spot forex is seeing a lot of growth in the recent years. A mushroom growth of online forex brokers took place. Many did not have even enough capital with them to start the brokerage business. Most of these forex brokers behave like bucket shops. But this is the way; the spot forex market has developed over the years.

It is essential for you that you understand the nature of the spot forex market and who are the main players. Why they trade forex? What type of advantages they have over the retail forex traders?

Over the counter nature (OTC) of the spot forex market means that currency transactions do not take place at any single place. Instead OTC means that the spot forex market is spread all over the globe.

Players in the spot forex market range from those who trade billions of dollars daily to those who only trade just a few thousand dollars daily. A players access to the spot forex market depends on the quantity of transactions of large amounts of money. Now who are the main players in the forex market against whom you as a retail forex trader will be competing?

Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. He is interested in day trading stocks and currencies. Try These 1500 Pips A Day Forex Signals From Heaven. Develop Your Own Forex Trading System!

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Right now forex trading is considered to be the hottest wealth creation opportunity. You can trade forex from anywhere in the world. You only need a computer, an internet connection and a few hundred dollars to begin trading. The foreign exchange market most often called the forex market is the most traded financial market in the world. Average daily currency trading volumes exceed $2 trillion per day. To give you an idea it is 10-15 times the size of the daily trading volume on all the world stock markets combined. That is a mind boggling number isnt it.

If you have been a tourist to another country, you would have definitely converted your domestic currency into travelers cheques. Now a day you dont need any conversion, your credit card company will automatically do the conversion for you. There many players in the forex markets. Big banks, multinational companies and other institutions require foreign exchange to carry out their day to day business. While commercial and financial transactions in the currency markets represent huge nominal sums, they still pale in comparison to amounts based on speculation. By far the vast majority of the currency trading volume is based on speculation.

Traders buying and selling currencies for short term gains based on minute to minute, hour to hour and day to day fluctuations. Almost something like 90% of the volume in currency trading is speculative in nature.

The bulk of the spot currency trading almost like 75% takes place in the so called major currencies which represent the worlds largest and most developed economies. Additionally activity in the forex market frequently functions on regional currency blocs basis where bulk of the trading takes place between the USD bloc, JPY bloc and the EUR bloc representing the three largest economic regions.

Forex markets are highly liquid. Liquidity represents how much faster or easier it is to buy or sell an asset. In other words, liquidity is the level of buying or selling volume available at any given moment for a particular asset or security. A highly liquid market like the forex can see large trading volumes transacted with relatively minor price changes.

At any given moment, dozens of global financial centers are open such as Sydney, Hong Kong, Tokyo or London and currency trading desks in those financial centers are active in the market. The forex market is open and active 24 hours a day from the start of the business hours on Monday morning in the Asia-Pacific time zone straight through to the Friday close of business hours in New York.

There is no official starting time for trading day or week. But for all practical purposes the market kicks off when Wellington, New Zealand, the first financial center opens on Monday morning local time. It roughly corresponds to Sunday afternoon in US, Sunday evening in EU and early Monday morning in Asia.

Forex markets are unlike the stock markets or for that matter any other market. As pointed out above currencies are always traded in pairs. You can go long as well as short on any currency pair. In the stock market, you cannot go short on any stock. There is an up tick rule as well that prevents you to go short on a particular stock. Unlike other financial markets, you can see around the clock action in the forex markets except on weekends. Forex markets are open 24/5. Sunday open represents the resumption of trading after the Friday close of trading in North America. This is the first chance for the forex market to react to news that may have happened during the weekend. Prices may have closed New York trading at one level. However, they may start trading at another level altogether at the Sunday open.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. He is interested in day trading stocks and currencies. Try These 1500 Pips A Day Forex Signals From Heaven. Develop Your Own Forex Trading System!

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